Global: Foresight for Adaptive Leadership Inclusive Futures and Resilience

Innovation Areas: FORESIGHT
Stage: Early stage

Foresight for Adaptive Leadership Inclusive Futures and Resilience in Tonga and Rwanda

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The problem addressed

In Tonga: introduce foresight techniques to the political government, bureaucracy and community to strengthen their resilience and adaptability (of visions, strategies, policies and implementation tactics) in the face of climate change. 

In Rwanda: to strengthen the anticipatory and adaptive capacity of the political government and bureaucracy in order to mitigate risks, maximize opportunities, enhance whole-of-governance approaches and speed up delivery of development results.

The intervention

In Tonga: organize a one-day ForesightXchange event with 100+ participants, representing different societal sector, using the ForesightXplorer (a foresight ‘game’) and discussing the results in a meeting with the Cabinet and all Heads of Departments. 

In Rwanda: organize a three-day ForesightXchange event on Urbanization, Rural Development & Special Projects with 40+ senior government officials.

The partners

In Tonga: Prime Minister, Cabinet Secretary and Minister of Planning, as well as Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies and East-West Center Chicago.

In Rwanda: Rwanda Governance Board (RGB) and Strategic Planning Unit (SPU) of President’s Office


In Tonga: Informal decision by GoT to enhance planning and implementation strategies with foresight techniques, presentation of foresight for resilience at SIDS conference by Tongan PM and UNDP Administrator, adoption of ForesightXplorer game in several community consultation events. 

In Rwanda: RGB going to implement public planning enhanced by foresight at national, regional and local level; SPU going to introduce national Innovation Fund to stimulate cross-sectoral collaboration; exploration of whole-of-governance mechanisms.

Lessons identified

Foresight/use of alternative futures/adaptive planning resonates deeply as a solution to many traditional planning processes; the need for inclusive foresight is not just an ideological but practical necessity, given the distributed nature of knowledge; institutional capacity to act upon foresight insights is crucial; local high-level champions are necessary to provide entry points; start with acute local concerns and then move into the realm of foresight, not the other way around.

Contact person

Petrus Vandepol:

Arndt Husar: 

Related materials

Article: Foresight-A forgotten tool in the fight against poverty and hunger

Tonga forsightXchange

Article: Introducing the foresightXchange

Local press release: Introducing Public Service Foresight to build resilience for Tonga

Public report: Tonga foresightXchange workshop


$192,500 USD

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